Free 2016 Fantasy Football Cheatsheets  
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2016 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets

At Fantasy Football Challenge we have analyzed statistics and trends from over 25 different data points to come up with our 2016 Fantasy Football Weekly Cheat Sheets. Some of the data points (injuries to offenseive and/or defensive players, etc.) are difficult to equate into a fantasy point calculation, but we do note them so you can be aware of them when making your fantasy selections. Many of the game situations (ie number of games played against a particular opponent on the road) may also have so little data available that they can not be used in the calculation as reliably as other data points (ie number of games played on the road). To compensate for the disparity in data, the data points with more game data is weighted more than those with less data. This allows us to still use all factors in our formula, yet minimize the affect any random outlying data point may have. We are confident that our fantasy cheatsheets provide more data for each player than any other free cheat sheet available, and although all of the statistics may not be critical for every week, it will give you a more complete view of how a player performs under the upcoming week's circumstances. We beliver our cheatsheets will give you the information and trends you need in order to be successful in your fantasy football league.

The Upcoming Week Cheatsheets Come Out on Thursday Morning and are Updated every Friday, Saturday and Sunday Mornings.

2016 Fantasy Football Weekly Projections

 

Try Our New: Fantasy Player Comparison Tool

Weekly Fantasy Sleepers: QB | RB | WR | TE | K

Top Career Weekly Fantasy Players: QB | RB | WR | TE | K

Check out our 2016 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

You might be wondering how we come up with our fantasy football rankings and projections. Though it would be too mind-numbing and tedious to actually write out the formula, we can shed some light on many of the factors we take into account to come up with our weekly fantasy cheatsheets.

We note which data points appear to be statistically relevant to a player's performance and which ones appear to not have much impact. All data points are weighted based on the amount of games played under a certain circumstance; for instance if a player has only played an opponent 2 times, but has played over 30 road games, then the road game statistics are more reliable because there is more data to draw from, so this data point is weighted more than the average against the opponent.

2016 Fantasy Football Cheatsheet Ranking Formula

Different factors are weighted differently and some downgrades can be compensated by other upgrades. It is a dynamic formula that changes and reranks as the factors change.
  • DEPTH CHART - If a player has gone up or down in depth chart.
  • INJURY STATUS - If the player is coming off an injury or is listed on the weekly injury report.
  • NEW TEAM - If a player changed teams since last week.
  • NEW HEAD COACH - A new coach will bring a different playbook and may have a different type of offense or mindset. We can take a look at the historical trends for the specific coach and apply those to the team and player.
  • FANTASY AVERAGE FOR CURRENT SEASON - The current season is the closest and usually the most accurate data set to gauge a player (barring a major injury or personal situation).
  • FANTASY AVERAGE BY CAREER - The fantasy average by career is a good baseline to use as a comparison for the different stats applicable to each game situation, which are outlined below.
  • FANTASY PROJECTION FOR SEASON - The fantasy projection for the player calculated before the season began. As more games are played in the season, the amount the season projection is weighted for the weekly projection decreases since the actual performance during the season now can be used more reliably within the calculations.
  • POSITION PERFORMANCE AGAINST OPPONENT IN CURRENT SEASON - The average for a position against the opponent for the current season. An example would be the QB average against the Arizona Cardinals for the current season.
  • POSITION PERFORMANCE AGAINST OPPONENT IN PREVIOIUS SEASON - The average for a position against the opponent from the previous season. An example would be the QB average against the Arizona Cardinals from last season.
  • FANTASY AVERAGE FOR WEEK OF SEASON - The average of a player during the current week of the season. An example would be Drew Brees' average during week 1 of the season.
  • CAREER AVERAGE FOR GAME LOCATION - The average of a player based on the game location (home or road). An example would be Drew Brees' average for all home games he has played during his career.
  • CAREER AVERAGE FOR GAME SURFACE - The average of a player based on the playing surface (grass or turf). An example would be Drew Brees' average for all games played on grass during his career.
  • CAREER AVERAGE FOR GAME DAY OF THE WEEK - The average of a player based on the day of the week of the game (Sunday, Monday, etc.). An example would be Drew Brees' average for all games played on Monday night during his career.
  • CAREER AVERAGE AGAINST OPPONENT - The average of a player based on the opponent for the week. An example would be Drew Brees' average for all games played against the Arizona Cardinals during his career.
  • CAREER AVERAGE AGAINST OPPONENT LOCATION - The average of a player based on the opponent and location of game for the week. An example would be Drew Brees' average for all games played against the Arizona Cardinals at home during his career.
  • CAREER AVERAGE AGAINST OPPONENT WITH CURRENT TEAM - The average of a player based on their current team and the opponent for the week. A player may have a high career average against a team, but many of their best games against the opponet may have come while with another team. We take a look at how they have performed against the opponent while on their current team. An example would be Drew Brees' average for all games played while on the New Orleans Saints against the Arizona Cardinals during his career.
  • CAREER AVERAGE AFTER PREVIOUS GAME RESULT - The average of a player based on the result from the previous game (win, loss or tie). An example would be Drew Brees' average for all games played the week after a win.
  • CAREER AVERAGE AFTER PREVIOUS WEEK OPPONENT - The average of a player the week after playing the previous week's opponent. A player may get up to play a certain team, but then have a let down the following week. A particular opponent may also be more physical then other ones, so a player may take more time to recover which could affect their performance the following week. An example would be Drew Brees' average for all games played the week after playing the Arizona Cardinals.
  • CAREER AVERAGE FOR WEEK BEFORE BYE - The average of a player the week before a bye (if player has a bye the following week). An example would be Drew Brees' average for all games played the week before a bye.
  • CAREER AVERAGE FOR WEEK AFTER BYE - The average of a player the week after a bye (if player had a bye the preceding week). An example would be Drew Brees' average for all games played the week after a bye.
  • CAREER AVERAGE AGAINST OPPONENT CONFERENCE - The average of a player against the opponent's conference. An example would be Drew Brees' average against the NFC.
  • CAREER AVERAGE AGAINST OPPONENT DIVISION - The average of a player against the opponent's division. An example would be Drew Brees' average against the NFC West.
  • TEAM POINTS SCORED AVERAGE VS OPPONENT TEAM POINTS ALLOWED AVERAGE - The average of points scored for the player's team compared to the average amount of points given up by the opponent.
  • INJURIES TO OPPONENTS DEFENSE - How the return of any defensive players, from an injury, suspension, etc., to the opposing defense or any new injuries to the opponents defense may affect the player's performance.
  • PREDICTED WEATHER CONDITIONS - How the predicted weather conditions may affect the player's performance. An example would be how rain or the temperature could affect the game outcome.
  • OFFENSIVE PLAYER CHANGE - As we know, there are other factors that can affect the performance of a player. The other players around them have a major impact. We look at the difference between the previous week roster of the players around them compared to the current week roster to judge how cuts, trades, or other roster changes can also effect the fantasy football projection for the week.
  • PLAYER CONSISTENCY - When you are playing a head-to-head league, player consistency means everything. One of your players may go off for 40 fantasy points two weeks out of the season which boosts his season stats, but he may only score 5 fantasy points the other weeks when you really need him. In most league styles, you need players you can count on week to week, so we take their consistency into account.
Although, there is correlation between some statistics and fantasy projections, correlation is not equal to causation; it is only a requirement for it. This means that even though some stats may seem to be an indicator of a predictable outcome historically, it cannot always be relied upon. All projections should be used only as an educated estimate of how a player will perform in the upcoming season or games. If we were 100% accurate, we wouldn't be publishing the results and would be headed to Vegas.